While out for my morning three-mile walk this morning my mind wandered to the ongoing discussion about global warming or, as the title has morphed into, a discussion about climate change. I was thinking about this matter because although I was in central Florida the temperature was 48 degrees when it should have been around 68 for this time of year. I was bundled up with a hooded sweat shirt on under by leather jacket, both of which I wore down here from upstate New York thinking I would not need them again until next fall. It was brisk weather for walking and I was walking briskly in spite of earning my recent 13th coronary stent.
Global warming? What global warming, I chuckled to myself? That chuckle started me thinking. Actually, many people in widely different parts of our country have occasion this year (this winter) to ask the question; the winter weather has been more severe in many areas than is typical. Who can blame the common man from asking the question, from wondering if scientist who talk about global warming know what they are talking about.
I use the phrase “common man” not in a derogatory way but simply as a way to describe the average, non-scientific tendency to judge conditions or events based on how they affect us personally. Animals have inherited instincts to guide them in reacting to their environment. They do not have the ability nor bother to analyze events and reach a judgment on how to react in the future. Humans have the ability to consider separate events and form a hypothesis they can test and then use to predict future occurrences and possible reactions.
Just the same, it is normal for us to consider first those things we can hear, see, taste, touch or smell, in other words, our personal experiences and observations. Man looks up in the sky, sees the sun passing overhead from east to west, and “sensibly” concludes that the sun revolves around the earth. What other possible explanation can there be? People with a slightly more critical eye decided there was more to it than that. They took a larger view and determined after some observations, some testing and some refinement of their hypothesis that the earth revolved around the sun. This heresy, as viewed by the Catholic Church, was subsequently found to be true and accepted even by the common man in spite of what he saw in the sky.
Scientists have determined that our climate is changing, warming by imperceptible but measurable degrees. This warming is not always apparent us when we rely on local weather conditions or just on our five senses. Can you tell if the temperature of the ocean is 1 degree higher than a decade ago? I can’t. That rise in ocean temperature in a section of the Pacific, however, contributes to the El Nino year we are having and that, in turn, explains the unusual weather we are experiencing in various parts of the country.
While we humans look at the weather on our street, in our town, county or state, scientists take a larger view and look at what’s happening all over the world -- and over a longer period than just a few months in the winter of 2009-2010. While Washington, D.C. may be getting more snow than usual this winter, Vancouver, British Columbia is having warmer weather than usual and having a dickens of a time providing enough snow for the Winter Olympics.
Global warming (climate change, if you prefer) is not determined by one up-tick or downtick of the temperature gauge. Consider the stock market graph over any period. It goes up and it goes down, but there is always a trend. If you buy or sell on the short-term market ticks, you will surely lose money. If you follow the trend, you will likely make money. When scientists look at the climate trend, they see global warming.
You can see what you want. Your belief, your bias for interpreting what you see, will not change the facts. When scientists’ hypotheses fail to predict, fail to fit the data, they refine their hypotheses. They then begin anew to gather data and continue to look at the big picture to get a model they can rely on. (Weather is never 100% predictable.) We mortals must be equally willing to adjust our opinions about global warming. Otherwise, we are just like the rest of the animal world that reacts to stimuli. We have intelligence and should use it.
Who do we want to believe, a scientist who likely has little financial or political stake in the outcome of the climate debate or a politician who creates a photo-op for his constituents and big corporate sponsors by building a snow igloo on the front lawn of the U.S. Capitol? Most scientists will admit it when their hypotheses prove wrong. Have you ever known a politician to admit he or she was wrong?
Sunday, February 14, 2010
Friday, February 12, 2010
LET'S NOT JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS
I must admit, I am disappointed in some of the Obama administration’s actions, or lack of such. But I must also confess that I am puzzled by those who wanted (and continue) to blame the president for a multitude of conditions in the country that he inherited and has had only a little over 12 months to affect a change. Let us first be reminded that he did not become president until January 20, 2009, just less than 13 months ago.
Next, we must remember that at this same point in his administration, George W. was already being written off as a one-term president, like his father. He and his cabinet officials made a number of blunders, both political and verbal, that had pundits and the population wondering if he was up to the task of commander in chief. Then the World Trade Center tragedy occurred. Object if you want, cry foul and blasphemy me for saying so, but 9-11 saved George W’s presidency -- and gave him an excuse to forsake the hunt for Osama Bin Laden and invade Iraq: Thus ensuring that we would be at war in 2004 when he ran for re-election.
I hope and trust that Obama will not have any such tragic event, terrorist initiated or otherwise, to bail out his presidency. He needs to exert his considerable personal appeal and intelligence to get control of events in Washington that are within his sphere of influence.
He has not done that. For instance, I would think that one with his experience in community organization would know that you organize a community one block at a time. In other words, get you ducks in a row. He allowed his democratic allies(?) in Congress to jump right in to health care reform without first getting their ducks in order. Health care reform is now close to becoming another failed promise -- and Obama will be to blame.
I can overlook some of the dumb-assed comments or actions by his cabinet officials and others who should known better. Have we forgotten already some of the prissy things John Ashcroft did during his first year as Bush’s attorney general? It’s a fact of Washington life for newcomers that they will sooner or later misstep or misstate.
If we were smart, we would require those administering the oath of office to the president or anyone in official Washington to read first this statement:
Before taking your oath of office, be advised that you often will not have the right to remain silent and that anything you say can and will be misquoted, taken out of context and used against you in the press and in the court of public opinion.
News reporters have found more fame (and fortune) in “investigative reporting,” which necessarily leads them to constantly look for a statement, wink or nod that can be interpreted (or misinterpreted) to form the basis for their next sensational headline in the press or teaser on the six o‘clock news. Forget the facts ... find the faux pas. The fourth estate is nearly as corrupt as the political arena on which it reports -- and that is sad. (Why is there a national Tea Party movement? Because a sizable portion of the population has determined it can trust neither the Democrats nor Republicans to lead or work on solutions.)
Political pundits, or course, make their living by culling the gems of politicians’ screw-ups for their daily tirades, each presented to create in itself the most news. The more outrageous a statement, the better. Keep in mind, too, that many of the pundits popular today are former politicians who have found it more profitable to comment on the actions of their political-party opposites than to actually hold office and contribute to solving the nation’s problems. Ideological zealotry plays better and pays better in the media than in Washington.
So with these comments in mind, let us vow that we will not jump to conclusions about the Obama presidency. That is, let us not conclude that Obama is finished, just a blip on the political scene as some would have us believe. He has three more years. Let us also try to filter the noise (called news) on radio, television and in the press about his or any other politician’s comments or actions with independent research and intelligence. We can be smarter than we are given credit for.
Next, we must remember that at this same point in his administration, George W. was already being written off as a one-term president, like his father. He and his cabinet officials made a number of blunders, both political and verbal, that had pundits and the population wondering if he was up to the task of commander in chief. Then the World Trade Center tragedy occurred. Object if you want, cry foul and blasphemy me for saying so, but 9-11 saved George W’s presidency -- and gave him an excuse to forsake the hunt for Osama Bin Laden and invade Iraq: Thus ensuring that we would be at war in 2004 when he ran for re-election.
I hope and trust that Obama will not have any such tragic event, terrorist initiated or otherwise, to bail out his presidency. He needs to exert his considerable personal appeal and intelligence to get control of events in Washington that are within his sphere of influence.
He has not done that. For instance, I would think that one with his experience in community organization would know that you organize a community one block at a time. In other words, get you ducks in a row. He allowed his democratic allies(?) in Congress to jump right in to health care reform without first getting their ducks in order. Health care reform is now close to becoming another failed promise -- and Obama will be to blame.
I can overlook some of the dumb-assed comments or actions by his cabinet officials and others who should known better. Have we forgotten already some of the prissy things John Ashcroft did during his first year as Bush’s attorney general? It’s a fact of Washington life for newcomers that they will sooner or later misstep or misstate.
If we were smart, we would require those administering the oath of office to the president or anyone in official Washington to read first this statement:
Before taking your oath of office, be advised that you often will not have the right to remain silent and that anything you say can and will be misquoted, taken out of context and used against you in the press and in the court of public opinion.
News reporters have found more fame (and fortune) in “investigative reporting,” which necessarily leads them to constantly look for a statement, wink or nod that can be interpreted (or misinterpreted) to form the basis for their next sensational headline in the press or teaser on the six o‘clock news. Forget the facts ... find the faux pas. The fourth estate is nearly as corrupt as the political arena on which it reports -- and that is sad. (Why is there a national Tea Party movement? Because a sizable portion of the population has determined it can trust neither the Democrats nor Republicans to lead or work on solutions.)
Political pundits, or course, make their living by culling the gems of politicians’ screw-ups for their daily tirades, each presented to create in itself the most news. The more outrageous a statement, the better. Keep in mind, too, that many of the pundits popular today are former politicians who have found it more profitable to comment on the actions of their political-party opposites than to actually hold office and contribute to solving the nation’s problems. Ideological zealotry plays better and pays better in the media than in Washington.
So with these comments in mind, let us vow that we will not jump to conclusions about the Obama presidency. That is, let us not conclude that Obama is finished, just a blip on the political scene as some would have us believe. He has three more years. Let us also try to filter the noise (called news) on radio, television and in the press about his or any other politician’s comments or actions with independent research and intelligence. We can be smarter than we are given credit for.
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
YOU HAVE A CHOICE -- WHAT WILL YOU CHOOSE?
I have coronary artery disease, CAD for short. That’s appropriate since many of my friends, students and fellow teachers during my teaching career thought I was a cad, and that is the nicer version of what they thought of me. Regardless, I have a genetic predisposition to develop narrowing of some of my coronary arteries with plaque, probably from cholesterol, although my blood work shows my cholesterol numbers to be good.
This condition apparently does not affect my other arteries. I have good pulses in my legs and ankles. An ultrasound of the arteries in my legs and carotid arteries in my neck show they are all open. One recent ultrasound tech said that my carotid arteries looked like what he would expect to see in a 40-year-old man. (I don’t think he was just trying to be nice, but who knows.)
When I ask, “Why me?” my cardiologist explains it with one word: genetics. I am not the poster boy for healthy living but I have been exercising, after a fashion, since President Kennedy started the Presidents Council on Physical Fitness back in the 1960s that encouraged fitness through exercise. I wish more presidents made physical fitness a national priority rather than just complain about the obesity problem. My wife and I also try to eat healthy. I know I eat less red meat and more fruits and vegetables than many of my friends. Just the same, before I went on cholesterol-lowering medication my cholesterol was in the lower 200s. It is now in the lower 100s.
Be that as it may, I was released from the hospital day before yesterday after receiving my 13th coronary stent. While walking with my wife this morning -- walking slowly, yes, but trying to get in my 10,000 steps -- when our 80-year old neighbor out for a walk passed us. I usually walk faster than I was this morning; I was taking it easy on purpose, so I wasn’t surprised when other walkers passed us. I was surprised when our neighbor went breezing by.
We got her to slow down long enough to exchange some pleasantries, during which we learned that she had been diagnosed as having osteoporoses and needed to get more exercise to keep her bones strong. After the pleasantries, she “sped” off ahead of us. My wife then explained that this was the same woman we saw last year walking slowly with a cane. She has rheumatoid arthritis and a year ago could barely get around. She must have kept working on it over the summer because she was now walking at a brisk rate that would shame some younger senior citizens.
We can all learn from her.
Those of us who can walk should walk and should walk daily. We should work to increase the number of steps to 10,000 every day. We can use bad knees, bunions, stability problems, snow on the ground, cold in the air, or lack of sidewalks to avoid walking. Alternatively, we can stop making excuses and start looking for safe ways to get in those doctor-recommended 10,000 steps.
Walk with a friend. Walk with a dog. Walk up and down the aisles at the grocery store. Push a shopping cart if necessary. Park your car at the back of the parking lot and walk to the store entrance. Walk up stairs instead of taking the elevator, unless your office is on the 17th floor. In that case, take the elevator to the 15th floor and walk up from there. Rainy? Get an umbrella. Slippery? Go to the local mall. Look for reasons to walk instead of excuses not to.
Concentrate on those 10,000 steps -- every day. The distance you travel and your speed will develop over time. Use a pedometer. It counts every step taken whether in the house or out. They all count towards your total.
No other exercise or medication can benefit your health or increase your life span like walking. Moreover, it costs nothing except the price of a pair of shoes and the willingness to give up your cherished excuses for not doing it.
C’mon, let’s go for a walk.
This condition apparently does not affect my other arteries. I have good pulses in my legs and ankles. An ultrasound of the arteries in my legs and carotid arteries in my neck show they are all open. One recent ultrasound tech said that my carotid arteries looked like what he would expect to see in a 40-year-old man. (I don’t think he was just trying to be nice, but who knows.)
When I ask, “Why me?” my cardiologist explains it with one word: genetics. I am not the poster boy for healthy living but I have been exercising, after a fashion, since President Kennedy started the Presidents Council on Physical Fitness back in the 1960s that encouraged fitness through exercise. I wish more presidents made physical fitness a national priority rather than just complain about the obesity problem. My wife and I also try to eat healthy. I know I eat less red meat and more fruits and vegetables than many of my friends. Just the same, before I went on cholesterol-lowering medication my cholesterol was in the lower 200s. It is now in the lower 100s.
Be that as it may, I was released from the hospital day before yesterday after receiving my 13th coronary stent. While walking with my wife this morning -- walking slowly, yes, but trying to get in my 10,000 steps -- when our 80-year old neighbor out for a walk passed us. I usually walk faster than I was this morning; I was taking it easy on purpose, so I wasn’t surprised when other walkers passed us. I was surprised when our neighbor went breezing by.
We got her to slow down long enough to exchange some pleasantries, during which we learned that she had been diagnosed as having osteoporoses and needed to get more exercise to keep her bones strong. After the pleasantries, she “sped” off ahead of us. My wife then explained that this was the same woman we saw last year walking slowly with a cane. She has rheumatoid arthritis and a year ago could barely get around. She must have kept working on it over the summer because she was now walking at a brisk rate that would shame some younger senior citizens.
We can all learn from her.
Those of us who can walk should walk and should walk daily. We should work to increase the number of steps to 10,000 every day. We can use bad knees, bunions, stability problems, snow on the ground, cold in the air, or lack of sidewalks to avoid walking. Alternatively, we can stop making excuses and start looking for safe ways to get in those doctor-recommended 10,000 steps.
Walk with a friend. Walk with a dog. Walk up and down the aisles at the grocery store. Push a shopping cart if necessary. Park your car at the back of the parking lot and walk to the store entrance. Walk up stairs instead of taking the elevator, unless your office is on the 17th floor. In that case, take the elevator to the 15th floor and walk up from there. Rainy? Get an umbrella. Slippery? Go to the local mall. Look for reasons to walk instead of excuses not to.
Concentrate on those 10,000 steps -- every day. The distance you travel and your speed will develop over time. Use a pedometer. It counts every step taken whether in the house or out. They all count towards your total.
No other exercise or medication can benefit your health or increase your life span like walking. Moreover, it costs nothing except the price of a pair of shoes and the willingness to give up your cherished excuses for not doing it.
C’mon, let’s go for a walk.
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